Forecasting Elections
This is a page for students of PS 240. On October 29th and 31st we discussed election forecasting.
Possible Exam Questions
- Nobody has suggested any yet.
Readings
L. Arcuri, Castelli, L., Galdi, S., Zogmaister, C. and Amadori, A. (2008). Predicting the Vote: Implicit Attitudes as Predictors of the Future Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters. Political Psychology, 29, 369-387.
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M.A. Barreto, Streb, M. J., Marks, M. and Guerra, F. (2006). Do Absentee Voters Differ from Polling Place Voters?: New Evidence from California. Public Opinion Quarterly, 70, 224-234.
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R.S. Erikson and Wlezien, C. (2008). Are Political Markets really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? Public opinion quarterly, 72, 190-215.
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M.S. Lewis-Beck (2005). Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice. British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 7, 145-164.
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From the International Journal of Forecasting
Campbell and Lewis-Beck. An introduction.
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Abramowitz. Time-for-change model.
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Berg, Nelson, and Rietz. Prediction market accuracy.
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Erikson and Wlezien. Economic indicators.
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Lewis-Beck and Tien. Changing the model.
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Lichtman. The keys.
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Sidman, Mak, and Lebo. Non-incumbent elections.
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