Economic Voting

This lecture was given in PS 240 on October 27th.

Lecture Material

According to the economic model citizens evaluate candidates based on whether they have kept their promises (particularly as relates to economics) and reward success and punish failure. The basic economic model has a change in a candidate's (or a Party's) popularity based on changes in economic and political conditions, primarily changes in unemployment and inflation. The economic model works best with voters when responsibility for changes is most clear. Additionally, although candidates are not necessarily rewarded for success, they are nevertheless punished for rising unemployment or inflation. Parties to the Left are held more accountable for unemployment while Parties to the Right are held more accountable for inflation.

We talked about the four ways of evaluating candidates based on retrospective vs. prospective and pocket-book vs. socio-tropic perspectives. Retrospective sociotropic indicators (whether the general populace is better or worse off than before) predicts better than any other model, particularly when looking at recent economic changes (within the last 6-12 months) as indicators. Rational Choice voting goes with prospective pocketbook voting and the economic view goes wit retrospective sociotropic.

Phillips Curve: This graph with axes of inflation and unemployment shows that it is impossible to have low inflation and low unemployment at the same time.

In situations where unemployment is high, leftist parties are looked for by voters. In situations where inflation is high, rightist parties are looked for by voters.

The formula for the vote / popularity function is:

Change in popularity = change in unemployment + inflation + D (political factors)

Political D-Terms in relation to the economic model: the amount of time since the election (approval is highest immediately after the election), how long the party has been in government (drops 1.9% per term), rally around the flag effect (invasions, national events, etc.) war (decreases favorability after there are bodies) , and the coat-tail effect.

Conditions generate perceptions and perceptions generate the vote.