Voter Turnout

Voter Turnout was discussed in PS 240 on September 17th and 19th.

Possible Exam Questions[edit]

What is the difference between the VAP and the VEP? Which should be used to determine voter turnout, and why?

Based on the voter turnout readings, how would you go about organizing voter mobilization and why?

B.T. Gomez, T.G. Hansford, and Krause, G.A. (2007). The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections. Journal of Politics, 69, 649-663.
Summary: "The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout." This article was about rain, and snow, and how they affected voter turnout. rain affected voter turnout more than snow, because, science fact, rain contains more water than snow does. The reason republicans should pray for rain is because lower levels of turnout affect Democrats more than republicans. peripheral voters are more likely to be democrats, so that is where the left gets their edge. so the less voters who turnout, the more likely the republicans are to win the election. I didnt mention any (...) because i doubt it is important for the test, but the article did mention that in some extreme cases voter turnout decreased by over 3%!

M.P. McDonald and Popkin, S.L. (2001). The Myth of the Vanishing Voter. The American Political Science Review, 95, 963-974.

Summary: Voter turnout has not been decreasing at an alarming rate, despite reports to the contrary. Rather, the seeming decrease is due to the measurement used to determine turnout. Turnout rates are usually determined using the voting-age population (VAP). However, over the years the percentage of the VAP that is ineligible to vote has increased (this includes noncitizens, felons, and the mentally incompetent), thus creating a false downward trend in turnout. McDonald and Popkin show that when the voting-eligible population (VEP) is used to determine turnout instead of the VAP, there are no real turnout trends after 1972 nationally or outside the South, though there are significant increases in turnout in the South since the 1960s following the Voting Rights Act and civil rights movement.

M. Prior (2005). News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 49, 577-592.
Summary: Cable TV and widespread internet access have increased media choice so much that most Americans now live in an environment with an extremely high amount of media choices. As media choices increase, the likelihood that someone will stumble upon political content decreases dramatically, because it’s easier to avoid the news. It’s not a lack of skills or resources that poses a problem to an informed population, but rather a lack of motivation.

J. Citrin, Schickler, E. and Sides, J. (2003). What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 47, 75.
Summary: Journalists and politicians believe that a higher turnouts of voters benefits Democrats while scholars believe otherwise. Though few elections would have changed had all nonvoters voted even though nonvoters are usually more democratic than voters. "full turnout among registered voters, equal turnout rates for whites and African-Americans, and equal turnout rates across income groups-generate similar results" and even though Democrats do better under these conditions, few elections would have turned out differently.

M.D. Martinez and Gill, J. (2005). The Effects of Turnout on Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960–2000. Journal of Politics, 67, 1248-1274.
Summary: The Democratic advantage gained from increased turnout has been decreasing. The parties used to be divided along class lines, where the majority of voters with low SES were Democrats. Since peripheral voters are also usually of lower SES, increased turnout benefited Democrats. Since class cleavages along party lines are becoming less and less pronounced, this benefit is also eroding.

J. Sandell and Plutzer, E. (2005). Family, divorce and voter turnout in the US. Political Behavior, 27, 133-162.
Summary: This study shows that an adult's current marital status has an impact on presidential voting and political participation overall, and early parenthood decreases the likelihood of voting. As we already know, parents' characteristics are influential on their children--education level and political activity are highly predictive of their children's political participation and knowledge. While the precise impact of divorce varies among racial groups, in white families, the effect of divorce is quite large--decreasing turnout by nearly 10 percentage points.